Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

被引:52
作者
Toon, Owen B. [1 ]
Bardeen, Charles G. [2 ]
Robock, Alan [3 ]
Xia, Lili [3 ]
Kristensen, Hans [4 ]
McKinzie, Matthew [5 ]
Peterson, R. J. [6 ]
Harrison, Cheryl S. [7 ,8 ]
Lovenduski, Nicole S. [9 ]
Turco, Richard P. [10 ]
机构
[1] Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Atmospher & Space Phys, Boulder, CO 80303 USA
[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Atmospher Chem Observat & Modeling Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[3] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA
[4] Federat Amer Scientists, 1112 16th St NW,Suite 400, Washington, DC 20036 USA
[5] Nat Resources Def Council, 40 West 20th St,11th Floor, New York, NY 10011 USA
[6] Univ Colorado, Dept Phys, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[7] Univ Texas Rio Grande Valley, Sch Earth Environm & Marine Sci, Port Isabel, TX 78597 USA
[8] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[9] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[10] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
关键词
EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; SOUTH-ASIA; CLIMATE; CARBON; FORCES; SMOKE; CONSEQUENCES; IMPACTS; WAR;
D O I
10.1126/sciadv.aay5478
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2 degrees to 5 degrees C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.
引用
收藏
页数:13
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