Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe

被引：52

作者：

Toon, Owen B. ^{[1
]}

Bardeen, Charles G. ^{[2
]}

Robock, Alan ^{[3
]}

Xia, Lili ^{[3
]}

Kristensen, Hans ^{[4
]}

McKinzie, Matthew ^{[5
]}

Peterson, R. J. ^{[6
]}

Harrison, Cheryl S. ^{[7
,8
]}

Lovenduski, Nicole S. ^{[9
]}

Turco, Richard P. ^{[10
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Lab Atmospher & Space Phys, Boulder, CO 80303 USA

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Atmospher Chem Observat & Modeling Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[3] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA

[4] Federat Amer Scientists, 1112 16th St NW,Suite 400, Washington, DC 20036 USA

[5] Nat Resources Def Council, 40 West 20th St,11th Floor, New York, NY 10011 USA

[6] Univ Colorado, Dept Phys, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[7] Univ Texas Rio Grande Valley, Sch Earth Environm & Marine Sci, Port Isabel, TX 78597 USA

[8] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[9] Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[10] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

来源：

SCIENCE ADVANCES | 2019年 / 5卷 / 10期

关键词：

EARTH SYSTEM MODEL; SOUTH-ASIA; CLIMATE; CARBON; FORCES; SMOKE; CONSEQUENCES; IMPACTS; WAR;

D O I：

10.1126/sciadv.aay5478

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2 degrees to 5 degrees C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

引用

页数：13

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