Trends of seasonal maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation in Southern Brazil for the 1913-2006 period

被引:62
作者
Sansigolo, Clovis Angeli [1 ]
Kayano, Mary Toshie [1 ]
机构
[1] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, BR-12227010 Sao Paulo, Brazil
关键词
EXTREMES; AMERICA;
D O I
10.1007/s00704-010-0270-2
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Long-term variations of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature (TMAX and TMIN) and precipitation records in southern Brazil are investigated for the 1913-2006 period. These variations are carefully analyzed for seasonal and annual indices, taken as regional averages. For this purpose, the serial correlation and trend of the indices are investigated using the run and Mann-Kendall tests. The significant trends are obtained from linear least-square fits. The annual and seasonal TMIN indices show significant warming trends with magnitudes (1.7A degrees C per 100 years for annual index) comparable to those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but lower than those found for the southern Brazil in another previous work. Regarding the two other variables, the indices show significant trends only for summer, being a cooling trend of 0.6A degrees C per 100 years for the TMAX and an increasing trend of 93 mm per 100 years over an average summer precipitation of 367 mm. Concerning the decadal analysis, the 1920s present the lowest annual, autumn, and spring TMIN and the 1990s, the highest ones. The 1970s is the decade with the lowest summer TMAX, and the 1940s the decade with the highest one. The driest decade is the 1940s and the wettest, the 1980s.
引用
收藏
页码:209 / 216
页数:8
相关论文
共 21 条
[1]   Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe [J].
Easterling, DR ;
Horton, B ;
Jones, PD ;
Peterson, TC ;
Karl, TR ;
Parker, DE ;
Salinger, MJ ;
Razuvayev, V ;
Plummer, N ;
Jamason, P ;
Folland, CK .
SCIENCE, 1997, 277 (5324) :364-367
[2]   A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data [J].
Hamed, KH ;
Rao, AR .
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 1998, 204 (1-4) :182-196
[3]   Trends in total and extreme South American rainfall in 1960-2000 and links with sea surface temperature [J].
Haylock, MR ;
Peterson, TC ;
Alves, LM ;
Ambrizzi, T ;
Anunciaçao, YMT ;
Baez, J ;
Barros, VR ;
Berlato, MA ;
Bidegain, M ;
Coronel, G ;
Corradi, V ;
Garcia, VJ ;
Grimm, AM ;
Karoly, D ;
Marengo, JA ;
Marino, MB ;
Moncunill, DF ;
Nechet, D ;
Quintana, J ;
Rebello, E ;
Rusticucci, M ;
Santos, JL ;
Trebejo, I ;
Vincent, LA .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (08) :1490-1512
[4]   Parametric versus non-parametric estimates of climatic trends [J].
Huth, R ;
Pokorná, L .
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2004, 77 (1-2) :107-112
[5]  
*IPCC, 2007, IPCC PLEN, V27, P73
[6]  
KARL TR, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P1007, DOI 10.1175/1520-0477(1993)074<1007:ANPORG>2.0.CO
[7]  
2
[8]   TEMPERATURE-VARIATIONS IN A TROPICAL SUBTROPICAL ENVIRONMENT - QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA, 1910-1987 [J].
LOUGH, JM .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 1995, 15 (01) :77-95
[9]  
Mantua NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069, DOI 10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO
[10]  
2