Predicting gestational diabetes mellitus during the first trimester using anthropometric measurements and HOMA-IR

Purpose To determine the predictability of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) during the first trimester using the degree of insulin resistance and anthropometric measurements and to assign the risk of developing GDM by weight gained during pregnancy (WGDP). Methods A total of 250 singleton pregnancies at 7-12 gestational weeks were studied. Body mass index (BMI), waist/hip ratio (WHR), quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (QUICKI), homeostasis model assessment-insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) scores and WGDP were determined. The backward stepwise method was applied to estimate possible associations with GDM. Cutoff points were estimated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Results GDM was found in 20 of 227 singleton pregnancies (8.8 %). The calculated HOMA-IR, QUICKI, BMI, WHR, WGDP, and parity were significantly associated with GDM. Logistic regression analyses showed that three covariates (HOMA-IR, BMI, WGDP) remained independently associated with GDM. It was calculated as OR 1.254 (95 % CI 1.006-1.563), AUC 0.809, sensitivity 90 %, specificity 61 % with cutoff = 2.08 for HOMA-IR; OR 1.157 (CI 1.045-1.281), AUC 0.723, sensitivity 80 %, specificity 58 % with cutoff = 25.95 for BMI; OR 1.221, (CI 1.085-1.374), AUC 0.654, sensitivity 80 %, specificity 46 % with cutoff = 4.7 for WGDP. Despite a HOMA-IR score of > 3.1 in pregnant women, GDM was detected in only three of 29 patients (10.3 %) if WGDP was < 4.7 kg at weeks 24-28. Conclusions First trimester screening for GDM can be achieved based on maternal anthropometric measurements and HOMA-IR. In particular, if BMI is > 25.95 kg/m(2) and the HOMA-IR score > 2.08, controlling weight gain may protect against GDM.