Simulating the effects of climate change on forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain, Southwest China

Forest gap models are important tools for assessing the impact of global climate change on forest dynamics of tree species composition and size structure. In this study, the FAREAST gap model was used to examine the response of forest dynamics on Gongga Mountain, which is located on the southeastern fringe of the Tibetan Plateau, under three climate change scenarios. The simulated results showed that the climax community of the deglaciation slash would be mixed species of Picea brachytyla, Tsuga chinensis, and Pinus densata under climate change scenarios, as opposed to the pure Abies fabri forest under the current climate. Climate change also drove replacement of Populus purdomiis by Betula utilis, which became the most abundant pioneer tree species on the deglaciation slash. Under scenarios of climate change, three responses of the four typical forests distributed between 2200 and 3580 m above sea level are observed, such as dieback of today's forest at 2200 and 3150 m, gradual change of the species composition at 2780 m, and afforestation at 3580 m. It is worth noting that the scenarios of climatic change are of inherent uncertainty, in the same way as the formulation of the ecological factors used in the models. It is suggested that simulations not be interpreted as predictions of the future development of the forest, but as a means of assessing their sensitivity to climate change. It is concluded that mountainous forests are quite sensitive to climate change.