Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet

被引：108

作者：

Rockstroem, Johan ^{[1
,2
]}

Gupta, Joyeeta ^{[3
,4
]}

Lenton, Timothy M. ^{[5
]}

Qin, Dahe ^{[6
,7
,8
]}

Lade, Steven J. ^{[9
,10
,11
]}

Abrams, Jesse F. ^{[5
]}

Jacobson, Lisa ^{[9
]}

Rocha, Juan C. ^{[9
,10
]}

Zimm, Caroline ^{[11
]}

Bai, Xuemei ^{[12
]}

Bala, Govindasamy ^{[13
]}

Bringezu, Stefan ^{[14
]}

Broadgate, Wendy ^{[9
]}

Bunn, Stuart E. ^{[15
]}

DeClerck, Fabrice ^{[16
,17
]}

Ebi, Kristie L. ^{[18
]}

Gong, Peng ^{[19
,20
,21
]}

Gordon, Chris ^{[22
]}

Kanie, Norichika ^{[23
]}

Liverman, Diana M. ^{[24
]}

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa ^{[11
]}

Obura, David ^{[25
]}

Ramanathan, Veerabhadran ^{[26
]}

Verburg, Peter H. ^{[27
,28
]}

van Vuuren, Detlef P. ^{[29
,30
]}

Winkelmann, Ricarda ^{[1
,31
]}

机构：

[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany

[2] Univ Potsdam, Inst Environm Sci & Geog, Potsdam, Germany

[3] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Inst Social Sci Res, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[4] IHE Delft Inst Water Educ, Delft, Netherlands

[5] Univ Exeter, Global Syst Inst, Exeter, Devon, England

[6] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China

[7] China Meteorol Adm, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[9] Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Future Earth, Stockholm, Sweden

[10] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden

[11] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria

[12] Australian Natl Univ, Fenner Sch Environm & Soc, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[13] Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Bengaluru, India

[14] Kassel Univ, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kassel, Germany

[15] Griffith Univ, Australian Rivers Inst, Brisbane, Qld, Australia

[16] Alliance Biovers & CIAT, Montpellier, France

[17] EAT, Oslo, Norway

[18] Univ Washington, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[19] Tsinghua Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[20] Tsinghua Univ, Tsinghua Urban Inst, Beijing, Peoples R China

[21] Tsinghua Univ, Ctr Hlth Cities, Inst China Sustainable Urbanizat, Beijing, Peoples R China

[22] Univ Ghana, Inst Environm & Sanitat Studies, Legon, Ghana

[23] Keio Univ, Grad Sch Media & Governance, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan

[24] Univ Arizona, Sch Geog & Dev, Tucson, AZ USA

[25] CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya

[26] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

[27] Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

[28] Swiss Fed Inst Forest, Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland

[29] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands

[30] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands

[31] Univ Potsdam, Inst Phys & Astron, Potsdam, Germany

来源：

EARTHS FUTURE | 2021年 / 9卷 / 04期

关键词：

Earth system; equity; human development; stability; OPERATING SPACE; BOUNDARIES; FUTURE;

D O I：

10.1029/2020EF001866

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a "safe and just corridor" that meets these goals. Although "safe" and "just" Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.

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