Uniqueness of bubble-free solution in linear rational expectations models

被引:2
作者
Desgranges, G
Gauthier, S
机构
[1] Univ Cergy Pontoise, THEMA, F-95011 Cergy Pontoise, France
[2] Univ Paris 02, CREST, F-75231 Paris 05, France
[3] Univ Paris 02, ERMES, F-75231 Paris 05, France
关键词
rational expectations; bubbles; sunspots; saddle-path property;
D O I
10.1017/S1365100501010264
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
One usually identifies bubble solutions to linear rational expectations models by extra components (irrelevant lags) arising in addition to market fundamentals. Although there are still many solutions relying on a minimal set of state variables, i.e., relating in equilibrium the current state of the economic system to as many lags as initial conditions, there is a conventional wisdom that the bubble-free (fundamentals) solution should be unique. This paper examines the existence of endogenous stochastic sunspot fluctuations close to solutions relying on a minimal set of state variables, which provides a natural test for identifying bubble and bubble-free solutions. It turns out that only one solution is locally immune to sunspots, independently of the stability properties of the perfect-foresight dynamics. In the standard saddle-point configuration for these dynamics, this solution corresponds to the so-called saddle stable path.
引用
收藏
页码:171 / 191
页数:21
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