Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

被引：128

作者：

Anyamba, Assaf ^{[1
]}

Linthicum, Kenneth J. ^{[2
]}

Small, Jennifer ^{[1
]}

Britch, Seth C. ^{[2
]}

Pak, Edwin ^{[1
]}

de La Rocque, Stephane ^{[3
]}

Formenty, Pierre ^{[4
]}

Hightower, Allen W. ^{[14
]}

Breiman, Robert F. ^{[14
]}

Chretien, Jean-Paul ^{[5
]}

Tucker, Compton J. ^{[1
]}

Schnabel, David

Sang, Rosemary ^{[6
]}

Haagsma, Karl ^{[7
]}

Latham, Mark ^{[8
]}

Lewandowski, Henry B. ^{[9
]}

Magdi, Salih Osman ^{[10
]}

Mohamed, Mohamed Ally ^{[11
]}

Nguku, Patrick M. ^{[15
]}

Reynes, Jean-Marc ^{[12
]}

Swanepoel, Robert ^{[13
]}

机构：

[1] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Biospher Sci Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[2] USDA ARS, Ctr Med Agr & Vet Entomol, Gainesville, FL USA

[3] FAO Food & Agr Org United Nations, Anim Prod & Hlth Div AGAH, EMPRES, Rome, Italy

[4] World Hlth Org, Global Alert & Response Dept HSE GAR, Geneva, Switzerland

[5] Walter Reed Army Inst Res, Div Prevent Med, Silver Spring, MD USA

[6] Kenya Govt Med Res Ctr, Ctr Virus Res, Arbovirol VHF Lab, Nairobi, Kenya

[7] Youngstown Air Reserve Stn, Vienna, OH USA

[8] Manatee Cty Mosquito Control, Palmetto, FL USA

[9] Chatham Cty Mosquito Control, Savannah, GA USA

[10] Fed Minist Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Khartoum, Sudan

[11] Minist Hlth & Social Welf, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

[12] Inst Pasteur Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

[13] Natl Inst Communicable Dis, Johannesburg, South Africa

[14] CDC, Kenya Med Res Unit KEMRI, Nairobi, Kenya

[15] Minist Hlth, Div Communicable Dis Control, Nairobi, Kenya

来源：

AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE | 2010年 / 83卷 / 02期

基金：

美国国家航空航天局;

关键词：

KENYA; VIRUS; HABITATS; AEDES; FORMULATION; CALIFORNIA; VEGETATION; MOSQUITOS; OUTBREAK; DIPTERA;

D O I：

10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0289

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.

引用

页码：43 / 51

页数：9

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