Forecasting Method of Aero-Material Consumption Rate Based on Seasonal ARIMA Model

被引：0
作者：
Yang, Yanming [1 ]
Liu, Chenyu [1 ]
Guo, Feng [1 ]
机构：
[1] Naval Aeronaut Univ, Qingdao Campus, Qingdao 266041, Peoples R China
来源：
PROCEEDINGS OF 2017 3RD IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER AND COMMUNICATIONS (ICCC) | 2017年
关键词：
seasonal ARIMA model; aero-material consumption; prediction; time series analysis;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
TP301 [理论、方法];
学科分类号：
081202 ;
摘要：
It is indispensable to scientifically predict the consumption of aero-material and to make scientific decisions on aviation equipment maintenance resources and make full use of existing resources to improve maintenance capability. In the process of aviation equipment maintenance and support, the consumption of aero-material tends to show a seasonal change. This paper proposes a seasonal ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model to solve the problem of aero-material consumption rate forecasting. Then the mathematical model and calculation method of the seasonal ARIMA are introduced in detail. And the application of seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting the aero-material consumption rate is analyzed by examples. The results demonstrate that the approach of this article has high precision and reliability which could provide data support for the reliability maintenance and replacement of aero-material.
引用
收藏
页码：2899 / 2903
页数：5
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