Energy and greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials resulting from different commuter electric bicycle adoption scenarios in Switzerland

To ensure long-term availability of mobility and to keep the effects of humanity on global climate limited, politics, research, and industry currently search for ways to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by it. A potential reduction could be achieved by transitioning towards more efficient transport modes, optimally powered by renewable energy. Based on mobility (commutes), population, and weather data from Switzerland, we present a model to compute energy savings due to a (hypothetical) widespread deployment of electric bicycles. In different scenarios, we analyze the dependence of the commuting energy demand on users' preferences about when to take the bike, such as an aversion to biking on cold and rainy days. Our study shows that GHG emission reductions of up to approx. 10% of the total emissions from diesel and gasoline are possible. In combination with a widespread deployment of electric vehicles, further savings of up to 17.5% could be achieved. In particular, the willingness to drive longer commutes by e-bike influences the potential GHG emission reductions, followed by the willingness to use the bicycle at temperatures below 10 degrees C. Using these results, we identify the spatial energy and greenhouse gas savings potential and thus regions that are particularly suited for e-bike use. The identification of regions with high saving potentials allows for targeted marketing, transition-supporting incentives, or infrastructural changes to maximize the reduction of emissions.