The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill

被引：75

作者：

Emanuel, Kerry ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Fuqing ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[2] Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[3] Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Tech, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES | 2017年 / 74卷 / 07期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE EQUILIBRIUM; INTENSITY; ATMOSPHERE;

D O I：

10.1175/JAS-D-17-0008.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed.

引用

页码：2315 / 2324

页数：10

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