Paying the piper and calling the tune? A meta-regression analysis of the double-dividend hypothesis

We present a meta-regression analysis of model-based simulation studies assessing the employment effects of environmental tax reforms. Besides the role of central modeling assumptions we investigate the implications of contracting bodies on the simulation results. Our analysis reveals the importance of unobservable study characteristics for the prospects of a double dividend in terms of lower emissions along with higher employment levels. While at first glance labor market assumptions and the contracting body seem to play a central role for the model outcome, these observable features are no longer significant when unobservable study features are controlled for. In contrast, we find the simulated employment impacts of environmental tax reforms to be determined by a joint set of explicit model assumptions as well as implicit characteristics of the respective studies. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.