Mendelian randomization provides evidence for a causal effect of higher serum IGF-1 concentration on risk of hip and knee osteoarthritis

Objectives. How insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) is related to OA is not well understood. We determined relationships between IGF-1 and hospital-diagnosed hand, hip and knee OA in UK Biobank, using Mendelian randomization (MR) to determine causality. Methods. Serum IGF-1 was assessed by chemiluminescent immunoassay. OA was determined using Hospital Episode Statistics. One-sample MR (1SMR) was performed using two-stage least-squares regression, with an unweighted IGF-1 genetic risk score as an instrument. Multivariable MR included BMI as an additional exposure (instrumented by BMI genetic risk score). MR analyses were adjusted for sex, genotyping chip and principal components. We then performed two-sample MR (2SMR) using summary statistics from Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genetic Epidemiology (CHARGE) (IGF-1, N=30884) and the recent genome-wide association study meta-analysis (N=455221) of UK Biobank and Arthritis Research UK OA Genetics (arcOGEN). Results. A total of 332092 adults in UK Biobank had complete data. Their mean (S.D.) age was 56.5 (8.0) years and 54% were female. IGF-1 was observationally related to a reduced odds of hand OA [odds ratio per doubling=0.87 (95% CI 0.82, 0.93)], and an increased odds of hip OA [1.04 (1.01, 1.07)], but was unrelated to knee OA [0.99 (0.96, 1.01)]. Using 1SMR, we found strong evidence for an increased risk of hip [odds ratio per S.D. increase=1.57 (1.21, 2.01)] and knee [1.30 (1.07, 1.58)] OA with increasing IGF-1 concentration. By contrast, we found no evidence for a causal effect of IGF-1 concentration on hand OA [0.98 (0.57, 1.70)]. Results were consistent when estimated using 2SMR and in multivariable MR analyses accounting for BMI. Conclusion. We have found evidence that increased serum IGF-1 is causally related to higher risk of hip and knee OA.