Reinforcement learning applied to Forex trading

被引:54
作者
Carapuco, Joao [1 ]
Neves, Rui [1 ]
Horta, Nuno [1 ]
机构
[1] Inst Super Tecn, Inst Telecomunicacoes, Lisbon, Portugal
关键词
Machine learning; Neural networks; Reinforcement learning; Financial trading; Foreign exchange;
D O I
10.1016/j.asoc.2018.09.017
中图分类号
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要
This paper describes a new system for short-term speculation in the foreign exchange market, based on recent reinforcement learning (RL) developments. Neural networks with three hidden layers of ReLU neurons are trained as RL agents under the Q-learning algorithm by a novel simulated market environment framework which consistently induces stable learning that generalizes to out-of-sample data. This framework includes new state and reward signals, and a method for more efficient use of available historical tick data that provides improved training quality and testing accuracy. In the EUR/USD market from 2010 to 2017 the system yielded, over 10 tests with varying initial conditions, an average total profit of 114.0 +/- 19.6% for an yearly average of 16.3 +/- 2.8%. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:783 / 794
页数:12
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