Prediction of road accident severity using the ordered probit model

被引：74

作者：

Garrido, Rui ^{[1
]}

Bastos, Ana ^{[1
]}

de Almeida, Ana ^{[2
]}

Elvas, Jose Paulo ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Coimbra, Dept Civil Engn, Coimbra, Portugal

[2] ISCTE IUL Univ Inst Lisbon, Dept Informat Sci & Technol, Lisbon, Portugal

[3] Univ Coimbra, Dept Math, Lab Geomat Engn, Coimbra, Portugal

来源：

17TH MEETING OF THE EURO WORKING GROUP ON TRANSPORTATION, EWGT2014 | 2014年 / 3卷

关键词：

Road safety; road accident modelling; injury severity; motor-vehicle occupants; ordered probit model; DRIVER INJURY SEVERITY; CRASH; LEVEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.trpro.2014.10.107

中图分类号：

U [交通运输];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0823 ;

摘要：

The ordered probit model is used to examine the contribution of several factors to the injury severity faced by motor-vehicle occupants involved in road accidents. The estimated results suggest that motor-vehicle occupants travelling in light-vehicles, at two-way roads, and on dry road surfaces tend to suffer more severe injuries than those who travel in heavy-vehicles, at one-way roads, and on wet road surfaces. Additionally, the driver's seat is clearly the safest seating position, urban areas seem to originate less serious accidents than rural areas, and women tend to be more likely to suffer serious or fatal injuries than men. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页码：214 / 223

页数：10

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