Extreme value analysis of dynamical wave climate projections in the Mediterranean Sea

被引：21

作者：

Kapelonis, Zacharias G. ^{[1
]}

Gavriliadis, Panagiotis N. ^{[1
]}

Athanassoulis, Gerassimos A. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Tech Univ Athens, Sch Naval Arch & Marine Engn, GR-10682 Athens, Greece

[2] ITMO Univ, St Petersburg, Russia

来源：

4TH INTERNATIONAL YOUNG SCIENTIST CONFERENCE ON COMPUTATIONAL SCIENCE | 2015年 / 66卷

关键词：

Annual maxima; peaks over threshold; SRES A1B; significant wave height; climate change; COASTAL REGIONS; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.procs.2015.11.025

中图分类号：

TP301 [理论、方法];

学科分类号：

081202 ;

摘要：

A dynamical downscaling approach is used for the projection of the Mediterranean wave climate under greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B (SRES). Two classical approaches of extreme value analysis, that is the Block Maxima and the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) methods, are implemented for the estimation of the return values of significant wave heights at four open-sea sites. These methods are applied to the climatic timeseries spanning over 2001-2100 and compared to hindcast simulations for years 1950-2000. Results show a general reduction of extreme events at central locations of the Algerian and Levantine basins while slightly increased extreme activity is observed in the climatic projections of Tyrrhenian and Ionian locations.

引用

页码：210 / 219

页数：10

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