The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

被引:97
作者
Bataille, Chris [1 ]
Waisman, Henri [1 ]
Colombier, Michel [1 ]
Segafredo, Laura [2 ,4 ]
Williams, Jim [2 ]
Jotzo, Frank [3 ]
机构
[1] IDDRI, F-75006 Paris, France
[2] Columbia Univ, SDSN, Low Lib 314, 535 W 116th St, New York, NY 10027 USA
[3] Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia
[4] 2 Degrees Investing Initiat, 205 East 42nd St, New York, NY 10017 USA
关键词
climate policy; decarbonization; DDPs; LOW-CARBON; SCENARIOS; MODELS;
D O I
10.1080/14693062.2016.1173005
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Constraining global average temperatures to 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or 'dashboard'. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country's decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 degrees C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies. Policy relevance In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.
引用
收藏
页码:S7 / S26
页数:20
相关论文
共 44 条
  • [1] ADEME, 2012, EV MACR VIS EN 2030
  • [2] Achieving development and mitigation objectives through a decarbonization development pathway in South Africa
    Altieri, Katye E.
    Trollip, Hilton
    Caetano, Tara
    Hughes, Alison
    Merven, Bruno
    Winkler, Harald
    [J]. CLIMATE POLICY, 2016, 16 : S78 - S91
  • [3] [Anonymous], 2015, PATHW DEEP DEC 2015
  • [4] Bataille C, 2007, ENERG J, V28, P145
  • [5] Bataille Chris., 2006, The Energy Journal, VSI2006, P93, DOI [DOI 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VOLSI2006-NOSI2-5, 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI2-5]
  • [6] A Microeconomic Framework for Evaluating Energy Efficiency Rebound and Some Implications
    Borenstein, Severin
    [J]. ENERGY JOURNAL, 2015, 36 (01) : 1 - 21
  • [7] SCIENCE AND STATISTICS
    BOX, GEP
    [J]. JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 1976, 71 (356) : 791 - 799
  • [8] CAPROS P, 1989, ENERGY J, V10, P1
  • [9] ACCOUNTING AND END-USE MODELS
    CHATEAU, B
    LAPILLONNE, B
    [J]. ENERGY, 1990, 15 (3-4) : 261 - 278
  • [10] Introduction to the EMF 22 special issue on climate change control scenarios
    Clarke, Leon
    Weyant, John
    [J]. ENERGY ECONOMICS, 2009, 31 : S63 - S63