Probabilistic structural durability prediction

An efficient reliability analysis method for durability of structural components subjected to external and inertial loads with time-dependent variable amplitudes is presented, This method is able to support reliability analysis of crack initiation and crack-propagation lives of practical applications, considering uncertainties such as material properties, manufacturing tolerances, and initial crack size, Three techniques are employed to support the probabilistic durability prediction: 1) strain-based approach for multiaxial crack initiation life prediction and linear elastic fracture mechanics approach for crack propagation-life prediction, 2) statistics based approach for reliability analysis, and 3) sensitivity analysis and optimization methods for searching the most probable point (MPP) in the random variable space to compute the fatigue failure probability using the first-order reliability analysis method, A two-point approximation method is employed to speed up the MPP search, A tracked-vehicle roadarm is presented to demonstrate feasibility of the proposed method.