Monitoring climate change, drought conditions and wheat production in Eurasia: the case study of Kazakhstan

Wheat is an important global food security commodity. Kazakhstan is currently a producer and exporter of high-quality wheat to global markets. The most important wheat-growing regions, which lie in the northern part of Kazakhstan, are based on spring-sown rain-fed cultivation and are susceptible to climate change and drought. Using the monthly surface air temperature and precipitation data from 1950 to 2020 from 110 meteorological stations over Kazakhstan and in addition wheat cultivation data, the research aims to analyze climate change, drought occurrence, and wheat cultivation trends in Kazakhstan in recent 70 years and investigate relationships between wheat productivity and drought. The linear method and two drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) and in addition, Pearson's correlation coefficient have been used to characterise the climate change trends and vulnerability of agriculture in Kazakhstan to drought. The geographic information system (GIS) was applied to display climate change, drought, and wheat referenced information. The research has shown that the 70-year (1950-2020) linear rates of annual mean surface temperature in Kazakhstan have significantly increased (on average 0.31 degrees C per decade) with the precipitation trends are not obvious and fluctuated trends of drought. The wheat yield demonstrates strong internal variability and wheat yields were significantly correlated with 3-month June and July drought indices over the period of 1950-2020. The results underline the potential susceptibility of wheat yields in Kazakhstan to any future reductions in precipitation and increase in drought occurrence and intensity.