Different states of multi-block based forecast engine for price and load prediction

被引:215
作者
Gao, Wei [1 ]
Darvishan, Ayda [2 ]
Toghani, Mohammad [3 ]
Mohammadi, Mohsen [4 ]
Abedinia, Oveis [5 ]
Ghadimi, Noradin [6 ]
机构
[1] Yunnan Normal Univ, Sch Informat Sci & Technol, Kunming 650500, Yunnan, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Houston, Dept Ind Engn, Houston, TX 77004 USA
[3] Islamic Azad Univ, Dept Mech, Najafabad Branch, Najafabad, Iran
[4] Payame Noor Univ, Dept Elect Engn, Tehran, Iran
[5] Budapest Univ Technol & Econ, Budapest, Hungary
[6] Islamic Azad Univ, Ardabil Branch, Young Researchers & Elite Club, Ardebil, Iran
关键词
Load and price; Feature selection; Intelligent algorithm; Multi-block forecast engine; TERM ELECTRIC-LOAD; NEURAL-NETWORK; MODEL; ALGORITHM;
D O I
10.1016/j.ijepes.2018.07.014
中图分类号
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要
This work proposes different prediction models based on multi-block forecast engine for load and price forecast in electricity market. Due to high correlation of load and price signals, the density of this reaction can affect the demand curve and shift it in market. Furthermore, to improve the operation and planning improvement in the power system, an accurate prediction model can play an important role. So, in this paper, a complex prediction approach is presented based on feature selection, and multi-stage forecast engine. The forecast engine is comprised of multi-block neural network (NN) and optimized by an intelligent algorithm to increase the training mechanism and forecasting abilities. Moreover, different models of multi-block forecast engine are presented in this paper to choose the effective model. In other words, different combinations of NN are tested in the same prediction condition to show their abilities. The proposed model is tested over real-world engineering test cases through comparison with other prediction methods. Obtained results demonstrate the validity of the proposed model.
引用
收藏
页码:423 / 435
页数:13
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