Are fluency measures accurate predictors of reading achievement.?

This study focused on the predictive validity of fluency measures that comprise Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS). Data were gathered from first through third graders attending 44 schools in 9 districts or local educational agencies that made up the first Reading First cohort in Michigan. Students were administered DIBELS subtests in the fall, winter, and spring, and they took the reading subtests of the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS) in the spring. Results showed that DIBELS subtests significantly predicted year-end reading achievement on the ITBS, Reading Total subtest. They also showed that DIBELS at-risk benchmarks for oral reading fluency (ORF) were reasonably accurate at identifying second and third graders who were reading below the twenty-fifth percentile at the end of the year (80% and 76% for second and third graders, respectively). However, 32% of second graders and 37% of third graders who were identified as at low risk by the ORF benchmarks turned out not to be reading at grade level on ITBS in April. We discuss 2 possibilities for improving the assessment of Students' progress in reading: (a) supplementing DIBELS with measures of reading comprehension and vocabulary, and (b) using frequent progress-monitoring assessments for students at risk for reading problems to identify students who are not responding to classroom instruction.