Farmers' incremental adaptation to water scarcity: An application of the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC)

To support effective adaptation in the agriculture sector through policy and practice, it is essential to know how farmers, as the primary decision-makers regarding land use, understand and respond to water scarcity. Using the model of private proactive adaptation to climate change (MPPACC) as a basic framework for the study, the research investigated the effects of cognitive factors on maladaptation in farmers' incremental adaptation to water scarcity as a climate risk. Data were collected during face-to-face interviews with 250 farmers of irrigated lands in Khuzestan province, Iran. The structural equation modeling results showed that the research model predicted 49% of the variance in adaptive behavior and 24% of the variance in maladaptation. These results provide strong empirical evidence for the hypothesis that maladaptation has an important and negative effect on determining adaptive behaviors (beta =-.33). Moreover, perceived susceptibility (beta =-.42, beta = .38), perceived cost (beta =-.21, beta =-.32), and perceived self-efficacy (beta = .31, beta =-.29) directly affected both adaptive behavior and maladaptation. This study contributes to the literature by: i) adding to the limited number of studies on the MPPACC; ii) confirming the efficiency of this model in the water scarcity context, as the MPPACC can be used to understand behavior of people faced with an environmental threat; and iii) improving knowledge regarding the impact of belief in climate change on the constructs of the MPPACC.