The risk of disease progression is determined during the first year of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection

被引:44
作者
Lefrère, JJ
Roudot-Thoraval, F
Mariotti, M
Thauvin, M
Lerable, J
Salpétrier, J
Morand-Joubert, L
机构
[1] Hop St Antoine, Inst Natl Transfus Sanguine, Virol Lab, F-75571 Paris, France
[2] Hop Henri Mondor, Dept Sante Publ, F-94010 Creteil, France
关键词
D O I
10.1086/515308
中图分类号
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号
100102 ;
摘要
A cohort of 103 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-l)-infected persons with well-defined dates of seroconversion were studied to determine whether baseline plasma HIV RNA loads 6-12 months after seroconversion have prognostic value. Baseline plasma virus loads had predictive value for the disease-free survival rate and for the survival rate. The level of baseline HIV RNA also had a strong negative predictive value for the CD4(+) T cell count during the fifth year of infection: A baseline load >5 log was predictive of a CD4(+) T cell count <500/mm(3) 5 years after infection. Baseline HIV RNA load was a CD4(+) T cell-independent predictor of progression to death. The major finding was that the disease outcome for HIV-l-infected persons is already determined during the first year of infection.
引用
收藏
页码:1541 / 1548
页数:8
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