Absolute Humidity and the Seasonal Onset of Influenza in the Continental United States

被引:464
作者
Shaman, Jeffrey [1 ]
Pitzer, Virginia E. [2 ,3 ,4 ]
Viboud, Cecile [2 ]
Grenfell, Bryan T. [2 ,4 ,5 ]
Lipsitch, Marc [6 ,7 ,8 ]
机构
[1] Oregon State Univ, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA
[2] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA
[3] Penn State Univ, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, State Coll, PA USA
[4] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[5] Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[6] Harvard Univ, Harvard Sch Publ Hlth, Ctr Communicable Dis Dynam, Boston, MA 02115 USA
[7] Harvard Univ, Harvard Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA 02115 USA
[8] Harvard Univ, Harvard Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Immunol & Infect Dis, Boston, MA 02115 USA
基金
美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词
PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; TRANSMISSION; IMPACT; STRATEGIES; MORTALITY; SURVIVAL; CLOSURE;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pbio.1000316
中图分类号
Q5 [生物化学]; Q7 [分子生物学];
学科分类号
071010 ; 081704 ;
摘要
Much of the observed wintertime increase of mortality in temperate regions is attributed to seasonal influenza. A recent reanalysis of laboratory experiments indicates that absolute humidity strongly modulates the airborne survival and transmission of the influenza virus. Here, we extend these findings to the human population level, showing that the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States is associated with anomalously low absolute humidity levels during the prior weeks. We then use an epidemiological model, in which observed absolute humidity conditions temper influenza transmission rates, to successfully simulate the seasonal cycle of observed influenza-related mortality. The model results indicate that direct modulation of influenza transmissibility by absolute humidity alone is sufficient to produce this observed seasonality. These findings provide epidemiological support for the hypothesis that absolute humidity drives seasonal variations of influenza transmission in temperate regions.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 29 条
[1]   Deaths from bacterial pneumonia during 1918-19 influenza pandemic [J].
Brundage, John F. ;
Shanks, G. Dennis .
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2008, 14 (08) :1193-1199
[2]   Epidemic influenza and vitamin D [J].
Cannell, J. J. ;
Vieth, R. ;
Umhau, J. C. ;
Holick, M. F. ;
Grant, W. B. ;
Madronich, S. ;
Garland, C. F. ;
Giovannucci, E. .
EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, 2006, 134 (06) :1129-1140
[3]   On the epidemiology of influenza [J].
Cannell, John J. ;
Zasloff, Michael ;
Garland, Cedric F. ;
Scragg, Robert ;
Giovannucci, Edward .
VIROLOGY JOURNAL, 2008, 5 (1)
[4]   Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from Sentinel data [J].
Cauchemez, Simon ;
Valleron, Alain-Jacques ;
Boelle, Pierre-Yves ;
Flahault, Antoine ;
Ferguson, Neil M. .
NATURE, 2008, 452 (7188) :750-U6
[5]   Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic [J].
Cauchemez, Simon ;
Ferguson, Neil M. ;
Wachtel, Claude ;
Tegnell, Anders ;
Saour, Guillaume ;
Duncan, Ben ;
Nicoll, Angus .
LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2009, 9 (08) :473-481
[6]  
*CDCP, 2009, INFL
[7]   COMPLETE STRUCTURE OF A-DUCK-UKRAINE-63 INFLUENZA HEMAGGLUTININ GENE - ANIMAL VIRUS AS PROGENITOR OF HUMAN-H3 HONG-KONG 1968 INFLUENZA HEMAGGLUTININ [J].
FANG, RX ;
JOU, WM ;
HUYLEBROECK, D ;
DEVOS, R ;
FIERS, W .
CELL, 1981, 25 (02) :315-323
[8]   Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic [J].
Ferguson, Neil M. ;
Cummings, Derek A. T. ;
Fraser, Christophe ;
Cajka, James C. ;
Cooley, Philip C. ;
Burke, Donald S. .
NATURE, 2006, 442 (7101) :448-452
[9]   Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia [J].
Ferguson, NM ;
Cummings, DAT ;
Cauchemez, S ;
Fraser, C ;
Riley, S ;
Meeyai, A ;
Iamsirithaworn, S ;
Burke, DS .
NATURE, 2005, 437 (7056) :209-214
[10]  
Gani R, 2005, EMERG INFECT DIS, V11, P1355