Long-Term Prognostic Predictors of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Potentially Indicated for Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection

Introduction: Patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have various comorbidities. Thus, it is necessary to determine the appropriateness of performing treatment based on the patient's general condition. Aim: This study aimed to clarify the prognostic predictors of ESCC indicated for endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 241 patients with superficial ESCC endoscopically diagnosed as ESD-indicated lesions at the Nagoya University Hospital between January 2007 and December 2017. We evaluated the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates and prognostic predictors, such as the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Psoas Muscle Index, and Controlling Nutritional Status score. Furthermore, we created a score-based classification using the prognostic predictors identified by multivariate analysis, and the 3- and 5-year OS rates were compared among the calculated scores. Results: In the multivariate analysis, PNI < 45 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-4.46; p = 0.006) and CCI >= 3 (HR: 4.42; 95% CI: 2.40-8.12; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the OS. Based on the HR, 0 and 1 were assigned to PNI and 0, 2, and 4 were assigned to CCI, and the score classification of 0-5 points was created. The 3- and 5-year OS rates in patients with a score 3 were significantly higher than in those with scores 4 and 5. As a result of scoring, the prognosis was stratified; the 3- and 5-year OS rates in patients with scores 4 and 5, that is, CCI >= 6, were clearly low, at approximately 10%. Conclusions: CCI and PNI can be prognostic predictors of patients with superficial ESCC indicated for ESD. Observation without ESD might be an acceptable strategy among patients with CCI >= 6.