Demonstrating developments in high-fidelity analytical radiation force modelling methods for spacecraft with a newmodel for GPS IIR/IIR-M

This paper presents recently developed strategies for high-fidelity, analytical radiation force modelling for spacecraft. The performance of these modelling strategies is assessed using a new model for the Global Positioning System Block IIR and IIR-M spacecraft. The statistics of various orbit model parameters in a full orbit estimation process that uses tracking data from 100 stations are examined. Over the full year of 2016, considering all Block IIR and IIR-M satellites on orbit, introducing University College London's grid-based model into the orbit determination process reduces mean 3-d orbit overlap values by 9% and the noise about the mean orbit overlap value by 4%, when comparing against orbits estimated using a simpler box-wing model of the spacecraft. Comparing with orbits produced using the extended Empirical CODE Orbit Model, we see decreases of 4% and 3% in the mean and the noise about the mean of the 3-d orbit overlap statistics, respectively. In orbit predictions over 14-day intervals, over the first day, we see smaller root-mean-square errors in the along-track and cross-track directions, but slightly larger errors in the radial direction. Over the 14th day, we see smaller errors in the radial and cross-track directions, but slightly larger errors in the along-track direction.