Macroeconomic news, public communications, and foreign exchange jumps around US and European financial crises

被引:15
作者
Ayadi, Mohamed A. [1 ]
Ben Omrane, Walid [1 ]
Wang, Jiahui [1 ]
Welch, Robert [1 ]
机构
[1] Brock Univ, Goodman Sch Business, Dept Finance Operat & Informat Syst, St Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada
关键词
foreign exchange markets; high frequency data; jumps; public communications; smooth transition regression; TIME PRICE DISCOVERY; ECONOMIC-NEWS; DOLLAR VOLATILITY; BOND; ANNOUNCEMENTS; SURPRISES; RATES; MARKETS; IMPACT; YIELDS;
D O I
10.1002/ijfe.1747
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Jumps in the Euro, Pound, and Yen, based on 5-minute returns for the period 2004-2015, are shown to be state dependent between recessions and expansions in their response to macroeconomic news announcements and speeches by treasury and central bank senior officials. We find evidence of large jumps and cojumps response to the Federal Open Market Committee rate decision consistently over economic states. U.S. news is more important than EU news and jump magnitude and probability exhibit positive responses. Federal Reserve senior officials' speeches generate more jumps during the U.S. mortgage crisis and the EU sovereign debt recession. Although public communications of some European Central Bank and Bank of England senior officials cause fewer jumps, they produce significant cojumps of the three major currency markets.
引用
收藏
页码:197 / 227
页数:31
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