Effects of climatically shifting species distributions on biocultural relationships

Local and Indigenous Peoples play critical roles in safeguarding global biological and cultural diversity. However, species distribution modelling has yet to incorporate perspectives that assess threats to the linked biological and cultural systems of local and Indigenous Peoples. Here, we provide the first example of integrating species distribution modelling with benefit-relevant indicators. This novel approach assesses how human access to culturally important species may change over time. Focusing on two culturally significant species used by the Indigenous Maori people of New Zealand, we first identified predictor variables relevant to the habitat of each species. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to estimate the recent (1961-1990) potential distribution for each species based on occurrence records and predictor variables, then generated future climate suitability maps. Our models show that future suitability for one species shifts to the south, in line with changes in temperature and precipitation, while the second species range expands into higher latitudes, driven primarily by increased temperature. When we combined these models with knowledge of tribal boundaries and cultural practices, results indicated that these distributions might decrease access to culturally important plants. Future suitability for one species shifted substantially from where it is most valued for weaving, while the second species range expanded to include more of its primary medicinal users. Climate change-mediated shifts in the ranges of these species are likely to affect intergenerational human-environment relationships, sense of place, cultural identity and knowledge on a regional scale, as well as cultural identity and social cohesion on a national scale. By interpreting SDMs within a socioecological framework, this research illustrates a new approach to assessment of vulnerabilities to climate change and identifies strategies for adaptation.