Norwegian foreign policy in global warming

Despite the fact that political leaders describe the climate crisis as the biggest challenge of our time, it plays only a marginal role in Norwegian foreign policy. We analyse how the transition to renewable energy, increased migration flows, reputational risks to Norway and challenges to international organisations such as the UN, EU and NATO will change the conditions for Norwegian foreign policy. We describe how three different climate scenarios - quick transition (A), slow transition (B), and no transition (C) - will affect Norwegian foreign policy. We show that the scope and efficacy of Norwegian foreign policy will be constrained in all three scenarios and conclude that the overall priority for Norwegian foreign policy should be to prevent dramatic climate change, as it undermines Norwegian welfare and security. We conclude by discussing the implications for foreign policy strategy, stressing the need for close integration with the EU, and for stronger cooperation with China.