2020 vision: the prospects for large civil aircraft propulsion

This paper will examine the prospects for propulsion systems for large civil transport aircraft over the next two decades, to the year 2020. This period is Likely to see the market drivers for future propulsion system development change from the more traditional ones of fuel consumption and weight, to also include those that affect the impact of civil aviation on the environment, and the continuing pressure to reduce the cost of ownership of civil engines, namely, product unit cost, maintenance costs and reliability. Fifty years of civil aero-engine development are reviewed and trends showing the likely limits to the main engine performance parameters are provided. The paper concludes with consideration of a number of new civil aircraft and engine concepts that may emerge in the next 20 years.