To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19

The possibility to run fair electoral campaigns is necessary for the legitimization of moderndemocracies through elections. Yet, during a pandemic, the risk that electoral campaigns wouldenhance the spread of the disease is substantive. In this paper, we estimate the causal impactof electoral campaigns on the spread of COVID-19. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation inthe schedule of local elections across Italy, we show that the electoral campaign preceding thislatter led to a significant worsening of the epidemiological situation related to the disease. Ourresults strongly highlight the importance of undertaking stringent measures along the entireelectoral process to minimize its epidemiological consequences.