Forecasting the storm surge generated by tropical cyclones.

In this article, a model that allows the evaluation of the storm surge generated by the action of tropical cyclones is presented. The hydrodynamic model solves the non-linear vertically-averaged momentum and continuity equations. The solution of these equations was obtained by means of a finite difference method and the well-known "Alternating Direction Implicit" (ADI) technique, in the space-time domain. The local atmospheric conditions, i.e., pressure and cyclostrophic wind, are computed with the Hydromet and Bret X models, which depend on the value of the cyclostrophic radius, the distance from the hurricane's center, the event displacement speed and direction, the central pressure, and the geographical location. The numerical model was used to estimate the water levels, as well as the speed and directions of the currents caused by hurricane Gilberto (1988) in Cancun, Quintana Roo, and the results are in agreement with on-site observations. This model can serve as a tool for prediction as well as for the undertaking of vulnerability and risk studies in coastal areas.