Predictability of the Oxford classification of IgA nephropathy in Henoch-Schonlein purpura nephritis

Background Whether the Oxford classification of immunoglobulin A nephropathy can be utilized to predict the adverse renal outcome of Henoch-Schonlein purpura nephritis (HSPN) has been long-debated. We, therefore, performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the prognostic value of Oxford classification lesions in HSPN. Methods We systematically searched Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library for articles published from January 1970 to August 2020. Cohort and case-control studies investigating the correlation between the Oxford classification and renal outcome were included, the quality of which was assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa scale criteria. The pooled odds ratios (ORs) with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated with a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model depending on the heterogeneity. Results A total of 485 papers were reviewed and eventually 9 comparisons were included, providing data of 1688 patients with HSPN. ORs for adverse renal events were 2.83 (95% CI 1.84-4.35; P < 0.001), 1.96 (95% CI 1.28-2.98; P < 0.05), and 5.45 (95% CI, 3.15-9.45; P < 0.001) for patients with lesions of endocapillary hypercellularity (E), segmental sclerosis (S), and tubular atrophy /interstitial fibrosis (T), respectively, without significant heterogeneity (E: I-2 = 0.0%; P = 0.498; S: I-2 = 22.4%; P = 0.258; T: I-2 = 33.6%; P = 0.171). Subgroup analysis adjusted for age also supported the results that E, S, and T lesions could serve as poor predictors (P < 0.05). Additionally, crescents (C) were strongly associated with renal outcome (OR 2.22; 95% CI 1.62-3.04; P < 0.001), with moderate heterogeneity (I-2 = 49.3%; P = 0.066). However, it should be noted that it is not the presence but the proportions of crescent lesions that were related to the high risk of progression to adverse renal events, because the predictability of lower rates of crescent (C1, with crescents > 0 and <= 25%) was uncertain (OR 2.21; 95% CI 0.75-6.51; P > 0.05). Although the pooled OR revealed that lesions of mesangial hypercellularity (M) were correlated with poor renal prognosis (OR 2.41; 95% CI 1.07-5.43; P < 0.05), subgroup analysis separating children from adults indicated that there seemed to be no significant difference. Conclusions Oxford classification, especially for E, S, T, and C, might be recommended for patients with HSPN, regardless of children and adults.