Monitoring the proportion of the population infected by SARS-CoV-2 using age-stratified hospitalisation and serological data: a modelling study

被引：40

作者：

Hoze, Nathanael ^{[1
]}

Paireau, Juliette ^{[1
,2
]}

Lapidus, Nathanael ^{[3
,4
]}

Kiem, Cecile Tran ^{[1
,5
]}

Salje, Henrik ^{[1
,6
]}

Severi, Gianluca ^{[7
,8
]}

Touvier, Mathilde ^{[9
]}

Zins, Marie ^{[10
,11
]}

Lamballerie, Xavier de ^{[12
]}

Levy-Bruhl, Daniel ^{[2
]}

Carrat, Fabrice ^{[3
,4
]}

Cauchemez, Simon ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Inst Pasteur, CNRS, UMR2000, Math Modelling Infect Dis Unit, Paris, France

[2] French Natl Publ Hlth Agcy, Sante Publ France, St Maurice, France

[3] Sorbonne Univ, INSERM, Inst Pierre Louis Epidemiol & Sante Publ, Paris, France

[4] Sorbonne Univ, AP HP, Dept Sante Publ, Paris, France

[5] Sorbonne Univ, Coll Doctoral, Paris, France

[6] Univ Cambridge, Dept Genet, Cambridge, England

[7] Paris Saclay Univ, UVSQ, INSERM, CESP,UMR1018, Villejuif, France

[8] Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat, Florence, Italy

[9] Univ Paris CRESS, Sorbonne Paris Nord Univ, Epidemiol & Stat Res Ctr, INSERM,U1153,Inrae,U1125,Cnam,Nutr Epidemiol Res, Bobigny, France

[10] Univ Paris, Paris, France

[11] Univ Paris, Univ Paris Saclay, UVSQ, INSERM,UMS 11, Villejuif, France

[12] UVE Aix Marseille Univ, IHU Mediterranee Infect, Inserm 1207, Unite Virus Emergents,IRD 190, Marseille, France

来源：

LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH | 2021年 / 6卷 / 06期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S2468-2667(21)00064-5

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Background Regional monitoring of the proportion of the population who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 is important to guide local management of the epidemic, but is difficult in the absence of regular nationwide serosurveys. We aimed to estimate in near real time the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2. Methods In this modelling study, we developed a method to reconstruct the proportion of adults who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 and the proportion of infections being detected, using the joint analysis of age-stratified seroprevalence, hospitalisation, and case data, with deconvolution methods. We developed our method on a dataset consisting of seroprevalence estimates from 9782 participants (aged >= 20 years) in the two worst affected regions of France in May, 2020, and applied our approach to the 13 French metropolitan regions over the period March, 2020, to January, 2021. We validated our method externally using data from a national seroprevalence study done between May and June, 2020. Findings We estimate that 5-704 (95% CI 5.1-6-4) of adults in metropolitan France had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by May 11, 2020. This proportion remained stable until August, 2020, and increased to 14.9% (13.2-16.9) by Jan 15,2021. With 26.5% (23.4-29.8) of adult residents having been infected in Ile-de-France (Paris region) compared with 5.1% (4.5-5.8) in Brittany by January, 2021, regional variations remained large (coefficient of variation [CV] 0.50) although less so than in May, 2020 (CV 0.74). The proportion infected was twice as high (20.4%, 15.6-26-3) in 20-49-year-olds than in individuals aged 50 years or older (9.7%, 6-9-14-1). 40.2% (34.3-46.3) of infections in adults were detected in June to August, 2020, compared with 49.3% (42.9-55-9) in November, 2020, to January, 2021. Our regional estimates of seroprevalence were strongly correlated with the external validation dataset (coefficient of correlation 0.89). Interpretation Our simple approach to estimate the proportion of adults that have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 can help to characterise the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemic dynamics, and the performance of surveillance in different regions. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：E408 / E415

页数：8