Prospect of Discharge at Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios using SWAT Model

In this study, the future expected discharges is analyzed at Daecheong and Yongdam Dam Watershed under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios based on RCM with 1 km spatial resolutions from Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA). HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KIVIA recently introduced is used for this study. Geum river watershed area is 9,914.013 km(2) and there are two dams, one of dam is Daecheong Dam completed in 1980, the other dam is Yongdam Dam completed in 2001. The runoff is simulated using the ArcSWAT model from 1988 to 2010. The simulation is in good agreement with measured data at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam showing R-2 of 92.25% and 95.40% respectively. Using the average discharge from 2001 to 2010 as a baseline, the simulated annual average discharge increased by approximately 47.76% and 36.52% under the RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario respectively for the period from 2011 to 2100.