Interval Monte Carlo methods for structural reliability

被引：196

作者：

Zhang, Hao ^{[1
]}

Mullen, Robert L. ^{[2
]}

Muhanna, Rafi L. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Sydney, Sch Civil Engn, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia

[2] Case Western Reserve Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA

[3] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Savannah, GA 31407 USA

来源：

STRUCTURAL SAFETY | 2010年 / 32卷 / 03期

关键词：

Bayesian approach; Epistemic uncertainty; Interval analysis; Interval finite element; Monte Carlo simulation; Parameter uncertainty; FINITE-ELEMENT METHODS; RANDOM SET-THEORY; SYSTEMS; UNCERTAINTY; BOUNDS; EQUATIONS; RISK;

D O I：

10.1016/j.strusafe.2010.01.001

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

This paper considers structural reliability assessment when statistical parameters of distribution functions can not be determined precisely due to epistemic uncertainty. Uncertainties in parameter estimates are modeled by interval bounds constructed from confidence intervals. Reliability analysis needs to consider families of distributions whose parameters are within the intervals. Consequently, the probability of failure will vary in an interval itself. To estimate the interval failure probability, an interval Monte Carlo method has been developed which combines simulation process with the interval analysis. In this method, epistemic uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty are propagated separately through finite element-based reliability analysis. Interval finite element method is utilized to model the ranges of structural responses accurately. Examples are presented to compare the interval estimates of limit state probability obtained from the proposed method and the Bayesian approach. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：183 / 190

页数：8

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