Development of parametric seismic fragility curves for historical churches

For both spiritual and cultural reasons, churches are an essential part of the historical heritage of several countries worldwide, including Europe, Americas and Australasia. The extreme damage that occurred during the 2016-2017 Central Italy seismic swarm highlighted once again the noteworthy seismic vulnerability of unreinforced masonry churches, which exhibited several collapses and caused uncountable losses to the Italian artistic heritage. The seismic performance of 158 affected buildings was analyzed in the aftermath of the main shocks. The failure modes activated by the earthquakes were identified making reference to the local mechanisms currently considered in Italy for post-seismic assessment of churches. The structural damage of the investigated buildings, related to 21 mechanisms rather than to an overall global response, was explained resorting to empirical statistical procedures taking into account ground motion intensity and structural details that can worsen or improve the seismic performance. Finally, parametric fragility curves were derived selecting those structural details that mostly influence the damage by means of the likelihood-ratio test. Developed models can be used in future territorial-scale scenario or risk analyses.