The potential global distribution of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys, a critical threat to plant biosecurity

The brown marmorated stinkbug, Halyomorpha halys is a highly polyphagous invasive insect, which has more than 300 reported hosts, including important horticultural crops. It has spread to every Northern Hemisphere continent, most recently to Europe. Whilst there have been no reports of incursions into Southern Hemisphere countries, there have been many interceptions associated with trade and postal goods. We modelled the potential distribution of H. halys using CLIMEX, a process-oriented bioclimatic niche model. The model was validated with independent widespread distribution data in the USA, and more limited data from Europe. The model agreed with all credible distribution data. The few exceptions in the distribution dataset appeared to be transient observations of hitchhikers, or were found at the edge of the range, in regions with topographic relief that was not captured in the climatic datasets used to fit and project the model. There appears to be potential for further spread in North America, particularly in central and southern states of the USA. In Europe, there is substantial potential for further spread, though under historical climate the UK, Ireland, Scandinavia and the Baltic states of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia appear not to be at risk of establishment of H. halys. In the Southern Hemisphere, regions with moist tropical, subtropical, Mediterranean and warm-temperate climates appear to be at substantial risk on each continent. The threats are greatest in prime horticultural production areas.