Assessment of seismic sources and capable faults through hierarchic tectonic criteria: implications for seismic hazard in the Levant

We present a methodology for mapping faults that constitute a potential hazard to structures, with an emphasis on ground shake hazards and on surface rupture nearby critical facilities such as dams and nuclear power plants. The methodology categorises faults by hierarchic seismo-tectonic criteria, which are designed according to the degree of certainty for recent activity and the accessibility of the information within a given region. First, the instrumental seismicity is statistically processed to obtain the gridded seismicity of the earthquake density and the seismic moment density parameters. Their spatial distribution reveals the zones of the seismic sources, within the examined period. We combine these results with geodetic and pre-instrumental slip rates, historical earthquake data, geological maps and aerial photography to define and categorise faults that are likely to generate significant earthquakes (M >= 6.0). Their mapping is fundamental for seismo-tectonic modelling and for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). In addition, for surface rupture hazard, we create a database and a map of Quaternary capable faults by developing criteria according to the regional stratigraphy and the tectonic configuration. The relationship between seismicity, slip dynamics and fault activity through time is an intrinsic result of our analysis that allows revealing the dynamic of the deformation in the region. The presented methodology expands the ability to differentiate between subgroups for planning or maintenance of different constructions or for research aims, and it can be applied in other regions.