Self-Regulation Shift Theory: A Dynamic Systems Approach to Traumatic Stress

Self-regulation shift theory (SRST) is a threshold theory explaining self-regulation following trauma that utilizes nonlinear dynamics to capture systemic shifts in trauma adaptation. Cusp catastrophe modeling tests nonlinear changes in an outcome (e.g., posttraumatic distress) based on an identified bifurcation factor under specific conditions (i.e., asymmetry variables). We evaluated two cusp models in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) database and then confirmed findings within a similar dataset. Based on SRST, we tested coping self-efficacy (CSE) as the bifurcation factor and a set of asymmetry controlling variables. Results demonstrated significant cusp models with CSE as a consistent bifurcation factor in all models. When participants reported lower peritraumatic dissociation, early lower CSE was a significant bifurcation factor for 3-month trauma symptoms in Sample 1, R-2 = .18. The cusp model for changes in symptoms from 30 days to 3 months showed CSE as a significant bifurcation variable with higher levels of avoidant coping (R-2 = .27). In a separate sample, early lower CSE was again a significant bifurcation variable with lower injury severity (R-2 = .52). Results support the importance of self-regulatory appraisals in nonlinear shifts in posttraumatic stress symptoms 3 months post-MVA. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.