Changes in serum uric acid and the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in the general population

Background and aim: Longitudinal evidence on change in serum (SUA) with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality is limited, as many prior studies focused on baseline SUA. Further, the optimal threshold range of SUA change is unclear. Methods and results: A total of 63,127 participants without history of CVD were enrolled. Change in SUA was determined by the difference of SUA levels between 2006 and 2010, which divided by baseline SUA was percent change in SUA. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Our analysis also included restricted cubic spline model and three-piecewise Cox proportion hazards model to address the non-linearity between percent change in SUA and outcomes. During a median follow-up of 7.04 years, 3341 CVD and 3238 deaths occurred. We did not observed a significant association between changes in SUA and CVD. However, changes in SUA at extreme were associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality, the HRs (95% CIs) were 1.15 (1.02-1.29) and 1.20 (1.06-1.35) in the first and fifth quintile group, compared with the third quintile group. We further found a U-shaped association between percent change in SUA and all-cause mortality, and the optimal range was within 20%. Conclusions: Changes in SUA at extreme were risk factors for all-cause mortality, but not for CVD in the general population. The findings are relevant for role of SUA in the management of CVD risk and may contribute to improve identification of patients at higher risk. ? 2021 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.