On the Simulation of Aggregated Solar PV Forecast Errors

被引:32
|
作者
Nuno, Edgar [1 ]
Koivisto, Matti [1 ]
Cutululis, Nicolaos A. [1 ]
Sorensen, Poul [1 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Wind Energy, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark
关键词
Solar power generation; power system simulation; uncertainty; forecasting; WIND POWER; PHOTOVOLTAIC GENERATION; TIME-SERIES; IRRADIANCE; PREDICTION; INTEGRATION; LOCATIONS; SCENARIOS; SYSTEMS; SPEED;
D O I
10.1109/TSTE.2018.2818727
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The uncertainty arising from high levels of solar photovoltaic (PV) penetration can have a substantial impact on power system operation. Therefore, there is a need to develop models capable of representing PV generationin a rigorous manner. This paper introduces a novel transformation-based methodology to generate stochastic solar area power forecast scenarios; easy to apply to new locations. We present a simulation study comparing day-ahead solar forecast errors covering regions with different geographical sizes, total installed capacities, and climatic characteristics. The results show that our model can capture the spatio-temporal properties and match the long-term statistical properties of actual data. Hence, it can be used to characterize the PV input uncertainty in power system studies.
引用
收藏
页码:1889 / 1898
页数:10
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