Estimated National and Regional Impact of COVID-19 on Elective Case Volume in Aesthetic Plastic Surgery

Background: In efforts to help alleviate the strain placed on healthcare during the COVID-19 pandemic, the American Society of Plastic Surgery recommended suspending elective procedures on March 19, 2020. When this suspension was enacted, it was unknown when cases would resume. Objectives: This analysis aimed to estimate the regional economic impact of the pandemic specifically with regards to elective, aesthetic surgical procedures. As knowledge regarding the effects of the pandemic has grown, the authors then evaluated the accuracy of the projected estimates compared with actual events. Methods: Utilizing the American Society of Plastic Surgery 2018 Plastic Surgery Statistics Report, regional case volume and surgeons' fees were obtained for the top 5 aesthetic procedures. Models developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were employed to estimate the anticipated duration of suspension by utilizing the date that no ventilators would be required for COVID-19 patients. This duration was utilized to calculate the volume of cases that would not occur. Results: These estimates predict up to 1.3 billion fewer dollars will be collected in surgeons' fees, representing a 20% loss compared with 2018. The South Atlantic region is predicted to have the greatest number of operating room days lost. However, the Mountain and Pacific regions are estimated to have the greatest loss in case volume and surgeons' fees. Conclusions: The cumulative impact of the pandemic on life, society, and the economy is tremendous. This analysis may help guide surgeons' responses during and after the crisis.