Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

被引:67
作者
Giuliani, Matteo [1 ]
Anghileri, Daniela [2 ]
Castelletti, Andrea [1 ,2 ]
Phuong Nam Vu [3 ]
Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo [1 ]
机构
[1] Politecn Milan, Dept Elect Informat & Bioengn, Pzza Leonardo da Vinci 32, I-20133 Milan, Italy
[2] ETH, Inst Environm Engn, Wolfgang Pauli Str 15, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland
[3] Inst Water Resources Planning, 162A Tran Quang Khai St, Hanoi, Vietnam
来源
ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2016年 / 11卷 / 03期
关键词
water storage operation; climate change; water-energy-food security; WATER-RESOURCES; CHANGE IMPACTS; RESERVOIR; INFRASTRUCTURE; POLICY; ADAPTATION; HYDROPOWER; MANAGEMENT; MODEL; FLOW;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035009
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to + 5% in hydropower production,+ 35 to + 520% in flood damages, and + 15 to + 160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US$ year(-1) at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 49 条
  • [1] Adger WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249, DOI 10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00136-3
  • [2] A framework for the quantitative assessment of climate change impacts on water-related activities at the basin scale
    Anghileri, D.
    Pianosi, F.
    Soncini-Sessa, R.
    [J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2011, 15 (06) : 2025 - 2038
  • [3] [Anonymous], 2013, CLIMATE CHANGE 2013
  • [4] Quantifying changes in flooding and habitats in the Tonle Sap Lake (Cambodia) caused by water infrastructure development and climate change in the Mekong Basin
    Arias, Mauricio E.
    Cochrane, Thomas A.
    Piman, Thanapon
    Kummu, Matti
    Caruso, Brian S.
    Killeen, Timothy J.
    [J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT, 2012, 112 : 53 - 66
  • [5] The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam
    Arndt, Channing
    Tarp, Finn
    Thurlow, James
    [J]. SUSTAINABILITY, 2015, 7 (04): : 4131 - 4145
  • [6] The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios
    Arnell, Nigel W.
    Lloyd-Hughes, Ben
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2014, 122 (1-2) : 127 - 140
  • [7] Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century
    Biemans, H.
    Haddeland, I.
    Kabat, P.
    Ludwig, F.
    Hutjes, R. W. A.
    Heinke, J.
    von Bloh, W.
    Gerten, D.
    [J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2011, 47
  • [8] Assessing possible impacts of climate change on species important for forestry in Vietnam
    Booth, TH
    Nghia, NH
    Kirschbaum, MUF
    Hackett, C
    Jovanovic, T
    [J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE, 1999, 41 (01) : 109 - 126
  • [9] Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam
    Castelletti, A.
    Pianosi, F.
    Quach, X.
    Soncini-Sessa, R.
    [J]. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2012, 16 (01) : 189 - 199
  • [10] Planning the Optimal Operation of a Multioutlet Water Reservoir with Water Quality and Quantity Targets
    Castelletti, Andrea
    Yajima, Hiroshi
    Giuliani, Matteo
    Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo
    Weber, Enrico
    [J]. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, 2014, 140 (04) : 496 - 510