Predicting Early Mortality Among Implantable Defibrillator Patients Treated With Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy

Background: The beneficial effects of a cardiac resynchronization defibrillator (CRT-D) in patients with heart failure, low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), and wide QRS have clearly been established. Nevertheless, mortality remains high in some patients. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score to identify patients at high risk for early mortality who are implanted with a CRT-D. Methods and Results: For predictive modelling, 1282 consecutive patients from 5 centers (74% male; median age 66 years; median LVEF 25%; New York Heart Association class III -1V 60%; median QRS-width 160 ms) were randomly divided into a derivation and validation cohort. The primary endpoint is mortality at 3 years. Model development was performed using multivariate logistic regression by checking log likelihood, Akaike information criterion, and Bayesian information criterion. Model performance was validated using C statistics and calibration plots. The risk score included 7 independent mortality predictors, including myocardial infarction, LVEF, QRS duration, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, hyponatremia, and anemia. Calibration -in-the-large was suboptimal, reflected by a lower observed mortality (44%) than predicted (50%). The validated C statistic was 0.71 indicating modest performance. Conclusion: A risk score based on routine, readily available clinical variables can assist in identifying patients at high risk for early mortality within 3 years after CRT-D implantation.