On the Varying Responses of East Asian Winter Monsoon to Three Types of El Nino: Observations and Model Hindcasts

Using observational data and model hindcasts produced by a coupled climate model, we examine the response of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) to three types of El Nino: eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific I (CP-I) and II (CP-II) El Ninos. The observational analysis shows that all three El Nino types weaken the EAWM with varying degrees of impact. The EP El Nino has the largest weakening effect, while the CP-II El Nino has the second largest, and the CP-I El Nino has the smallest. We find that diverse El Nino types impact the EAWM by altering the responses of two anomalous anticyclones during El Nino mature winter: the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) and Kuroshio anticyclone (KAC). The WNPAC responses are controlled by the Gill response and Indian Ocean warming processes that both respond to the eastern-to-central tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies. The KAC responses are controlled by a poleward wave propagation responding to the northwestern tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies. We find that the model hindcasts significantly underestimate the weakening effect during the EP and CP-II El Ninos. These underestimations are related to a model deficiency in which it produces a too-weak WNPAC response during the EP El Nino and completely misses the KAC response during both types of El Nino. The too-weak WNPAC response is caused by the model deficiency of simulating too-weak eastern-to-central tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies. The lack of KAC response arises from the unrealistic response of the model's extratropical atmosphere to the northwestern tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies.