Nontraditional Lipid Variables Predict Recurrent Brain Ischemia in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source

Objective: The aims of this study are, first, to calculate the risk of brain ischemia recurrence and embolic source diagnosis in the follow-up of patients with ESUS (embolic stroke of undetermined source) and, second, to identify the predictors of these events including cardiologic, laboratory, and clinical factors. Methods: A retrospective observational cohort study of stroke patients admitted to the stroke unit in a single tertiary hospital from 2012 to 2014 was performed. Patients fulfilling ESUS criteria were identified and followed by medical history review until March 2016. Statistical analysis comprised Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards multivariate analysis including clinical characteristics, cardiologic data, and blood test results. Results: One hundred and thirteen patients, 8.3% of the overall stroke patients, filled ESUS criteria and they were younger, had less vascular risk factors, and suffered milder strokes than the remainder of stroke patients. Median follow-up of ESUS was 25.6 months. Risk of brain ischemia recurrence was 8.4, 10.8, and 15% at 12, 24, and 36 months, respectively, and was associated to age (HR 1.07, P = .027) and to a higher total cholesterol (TC)/high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (HR = 1.38, P = .002) and low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-cholesterol/HDL-cholesterol ratios (HR = 1.48, P = .001). The risk of major embolic source diagnosis was 6.7, 7.8, 13.6% at 12, 24, and 36 months, and was associated to female sex (HR = 6.05, P = .021). Conclusions: Brain ischemia recurrence increases with age and increased values of nontraditional lipid variables, TCHDLr and LDLHDLr, in ESUS patients, and women are more frequently diagnosed with a major embolic source in the follow-up.