Assessment of future changes in downscaled temperature and precipitation over the Casablanca-Settat region (Morocco)

Our study aimed to assess future climate changes in the region of Casablanca-Settat using downscaled outputs of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): the Canadian model (canESM2) and the National Centre for Meteorological Research (France) model (CNRM-CM5). These future climate changes were assessed through precipitation, minimum and maximum daily temperatures on annual and seasonal scales for three weather stations located at Casablanca-Settat region (Morocco). The temperature and precipitation changes are evaluated for two future periods: 2036-2065 (near term) and 2071-2100 (long term) relative to the present climate (1972-2001) using two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results, evaluated according to the two above mentioned scenarios with respect to the baseline period 1972-2001, show a significant decrease for future projections of total rainfall, with percentages varying from one model to another. This decrease in precipitations affects all seasons. Concerning temperatures, the two models agree on a significant increase especially more marked during the summer and autumn. The decrease of rainfall and the increase of temperatures are in good agreement with the forecasts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, Climate change 2014: synthesis report. In: Core Writing Team, Pachauri RK, Meyer LA (eds) Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, 2014).