Prediction of hospital bed capacity during the COVID-19 pandemic

被引：29

作者：

Deschepper, Mieke ^{[1
]}

Eeckloo, Kristof ^{[1
,2
]}

Malfait, Simon ^{[1
]}

Benoit, Dominique ^{[3
]}

Callens, Steven ^{[4
]}

Vansteelandt, Stijn ^{[5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Ghent Univ Hosp, Strateg Policy Cell, C Heymanslaan 10, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[2] Univ Ghent, Dept Publ Hlth & Primary Care, C Heymanslaan 10, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[3] Ghent Univ Hosp, Dept Intens Care Med, C Heymanslaan 10, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[4] Ghent Univ Hosp, Dept Gen Internal Med, C Heymanslaan 10, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[5] Univ Ghent, Dept Appl Math Comp Sci & Stat, Krijgslaan 281 S9, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[6] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Med Stat, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England

来源：

BMC HEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH | 2021年 / 21卷 / 01期

关键词：

COVID-19; Multistate modeling; Poisson modelling; Hospital data; SIMULATION;

D O I：

10.1186/s12913-021-06492-3

中图分类号：

R19 [保健组织与事业（卫生事业管理）];

学科分类号：

摘要：

BackgroundPrediction of the necessary capacity of beds by ward type (e.g. ICU) is essential for planning purposes during epidemics, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 taskforce within the Ghent University hospital made use of ten-day forecasts on the required number of beds for COVID-19 patients across different wards.MethodsThe planning tool combined a Poisson model for the number of newly admitted patients on each day with a multistate model for the transitions of admitted patients to the different wards, discharge or death. These models were used to simulate the required capacity of beds by ward type over the next 10days, along with worst-case and best-case bounds.ResultsOverall, the models resulted in good predictions of the required number of beds across different hospital wards. Short-term predictions were especially accurate as these are less sensitive to sudden changes in number of beds on a given ward (e.g. due to referrals). Code snippets and details on the set-up are provided to guide the reader to apply the planning tool on one's own hospital data.ConclusionsWe were able to achieve a fast setup of a planning tool useful within the COVID-19 pandemic, with a fair prediction on the needed capacity by ward type. This methodology can also be applied for other epidemics.

引用

页数：10