This paper aims to simulate and predict global permafrost distribution, and analyse its change from 2010 to 2100 under different climate scenarios. Based on different factors (topography, land cover, climate and location) and global permafrost distribution status, logistic regression model (LRM) is chosen and constructed to simulate and predict the global permafrost distributions. Thus, the global permafrost distributions at T1 (2010-2040), T2 (2040-2070) and T3 (2070-2100) are predicted under different climate scenarios (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85). From T1 to T3, the area of global permafrost has the largest degradation under RCP85 scenarios. From RCP26 to RCP85 at T3, the area of the degraded permafrost reached 0.671 x 10(8) km(2). The degraded permafrost mainly distributes in east Asia, west Asia, north Europe and north America. The west Asia has the highest degrading distance, about 600 km under the situations of both RCP85 from T1 to T3 and from RCP26 to RCP85 at T3.
机构:
Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, ItalyCommiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy
Bartholomé, E
Belward, AS
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Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, ItalyCommiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy
机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Cheng Weiming
Zhao Shangmin
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机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi, Peoples R China
Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Min Technol, Dept Surveying & Mapping, Taiyuan, Peoples R China
Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Zhao Shangmin
Zhou Chenghu
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机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Zhou Chenghu
Chen Xi
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机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
机构:
Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, ItalyCommiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy
Bartholomé, E
Belward, AS
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, ItalyCommiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy
机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Cheng Weiming
Zhao Shangmin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi, Peoples R China
Taiyuan Univ Technol, Coll Min Technol, Dept Surveying & Mapping, Taiyuan, Peoples R China
Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Zhao Shangmin
Zhou Chenghu
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
Zhou Chenghu
Chen Xi
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi, Peoples R ChinaChinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China