Modeling technological innovation risks of an entrepreneurial team using system dynamics: An agent-based perspective

被引：123

作者：

Wu, Desheng Dash ^{[1
,2
]}

Xie Kefan ^{[3
]}

Hua, Liu ^{[3
]}

Shi, Zhao ^{[3
]}

Olson, David L. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Reykjavik Univ, IS-103 Reykjavik, Iceland

[2] Univ Toronto, RiskLab, Toronto, ON M5S 1A1, Canada

[3] Wuhan Univ Technol, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China

[4] Univ Nebraska, Dept Management, Lincoln, NE 68588 USA

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2010年 / 77卷 / 06期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Risk-based decision-making (RDM); Entrepreneurial team; Technological innovation risk; Agent-based modeling; System dynamics;

D O I：

10.1016/j.techfore.2010.01.015

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Continuous technological innovation has been playing a vital role in ensuring the survival and development of an enterprise in today's economy. This paper studies the problem of technological innovation risk-based decision-making from an entrepreneurial team point of view. We identify the differences between this team decision-making and a traditional individual decision-making problem, where decisions are mainly affected by the decision-maker's risk and value perceptions, and risk preferences. We create a modeling framework for such a new problem, and use system dynamics theory to model it from the agent-based modeling perspective. The proposed approach is validated by a case study of the technological innovation risk decision-making in a Chinese automobile company. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：857 / 869

页数：13

共 21 条

[11] PSYCHOLOGY OF PREDICTION [J].

KAHNEMAN, D ;

TVERSKY, A .

PSYCHOLOGICAL REVIEW, 1973, 80 (04) :237-251

[12] Social interaction: A determinant of entrepreneurial team venture success [J].

Lechler, T .

SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMICS, 2001, 16 (04) :263-278

[13] Brownian agent-based technology forecasting [J].

Shin, Juneseuk ;

Park, Yongtae .

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, 2009, 76 (08) :1078-1091

[14]

Sterman JohnD., 2000, BUSINESS DYNAMICS

[15]

THURSTON PH, 1986, HARVARD BUSINESS NOV

[16] JUDGMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY - HEURISTICS AND BIASES [J].

TVERSKY, A ;

KAHNEMAN, D .

SCIENCE, 1974, 185 (4157) :1124-1131

[17] Combined forecast process: Combining scenario analysis with the technological substitution model [J].

Wang, Ming-Yeu ;

Lan, Wei-Ting .

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, 2007, 74 (03) :357-378

[18]

WU D, 2009, INT J PRODU IN PRESS

[19]

WU D, 2008, J OPER IN PRESS 0915

[20] Supply chain risk, simulation, and vendor selection [J].

Wu, Desheng ;

Olson, David L. .

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION ECONOMICS, 2008, 114 (02) :646-655

← 1 2 3 →